Extrema väderhändelser som drivkrafter för katastrofriskreducering och utveckling [TRAMPOLINE]

Tidsperiod: 2019-01-01 till 2021-12-31

Projektledare: Daniel Nohrstedt

Medarbetare: Charles Parker, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Beatriz Quesada Montano

Finansiär: Vetenskapsrådet

Bidragstyp: Projektbidrag

Budget: 4 493 650 SEK

Extreme weather events, floods and droughts—problems that are likely to become more frequent and extreme due to climate change— inflict major losses and disproportionally affect lower income countries, yet the conditions for accelerating the implementation of public policy for disaster risk reduction (DRR) and development are poorly understood. In this project, an interdisciplinary team of political scientists and hydrologists will investigate extreme hazard events as potential triggers for changes in DRR policy and development. We perform a statistical, global-scale analysis of policy change after extreme events and, using the results, select two comparative case-studies of hazard-induced policy change in lower- and middle-income countries to analyse. Utilizing unique data on DRR policy implementation from 2007-2018, a new merged dataset of climate extremes and disasters, and material from interviews and public sources, we will document the extent to which these events prompt policy change worldwide and assess whether variations  can be explained by income-levels, event magnitude, regular exposure, diffusion effects, agenda-setting, political mobilization, and learning. By testing and specifying explanations for hazard-induced policy change, the results will significantly advance frontiers in natural hazard science, development studies, and public policy. The results will support international efforts to reduce disaster risks through the Sendai framework for DRR.