Global oljeförsörjning: modellering av konventionell och okonventionell oljeproduktion med bottom-up modeller som integrerar fysiska och ekonomiska parametrar
Tidsperiod: 2015-01-01 till 2018-12-31
Projektledare: Mikael Höök
Budget: 3 548 000 SEK
Oil is an essential part of modern society and concerns have been raised about future conventional oil supply, turning hope towards unconventional oil. Predictions of future oil production tend to diverge, in part due to differences in applied methods and result interpretation between natural and economic sciences. While the former often appear to have underestimated future oil production, the latter have tended to be overly optimistic. The main purpose of this project is to narrow the gap between these different views by generating transparent and substantiated outlooks of future oil supply by constructing descriptive and predictive bottom-up models that includes both physical and economic parameters. Existing empirically founded methods such as decline and depletion rate analysis, as well as economic agent based models, will be further developed and used to project production from individual oil fields. Also, an existing conventional oil field data base will be updated and extended to include economic data and unconventional oil production. The goal is to derive production outlooks for conventional as well as unconventional oil, both on regional and global level. Not only will the results provide further understanding of the future oil supply, but attempts will also be made to transform the results to supply and price elasticity functions for integration in models used by collaborating researchers to assess implications of oil future availability on the global economy.